Bank of America Corp., alongside Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.,
raised their 2026 inflation forecasts for China due to higher oil prices from
the Iran conflict. The spike in energy costs has pushed back expectations for
monetary easing, with BofA dropping its call for two 10-basis-point rate cuts
and Citi now projecting a single 10-bp reduction in H2. Economists note the
impact is concentrated in producer prices, with limited pass-through to consumers
inflation, while China’s fiscal stimulus is expected to play a bigger role in
supporting growth.
