Goldman Sachs raised the likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to
30%, up 5 percentage points, citing surging oil and gas prices, tighter
financial conditions from the Middle East conflict, and fading effects of
Trump’s tax law. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius projects unemployment will reach
4.6% by year-end. The bank expects sub-trend GDP growth of 1.25–1.75% in H2 and
anticipates Fed rate cuts in September and December. Goldman also raised its oil
forecast due to ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
