BRENT CRUDE FUTURES RISE $2 TO $104.22/BBL AS INVESTORS ASSESS MIDDLE EAST CEASEFIRE UNCERTAINTY

Germany's GfK consumer confidence index for April was -28, compared to a forecast of -27 and a revised previous reading of -24.8 (originally -24.7).

US-Israel-Iran Conflict: ① Iran 1. Iran claims to have arrested several US and Israeli employees in Tehran. 2. Iranian official: The US's so-called "15-point ceasefire proposal" is "a pipe dream." 3. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf: We are closely monitoring all US movements, especially troop deployments. 4. Iranian Navy Commander: Once a US aircraft carrier enters the range of our missile systems, it will become a target. 5. Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan: There have been no direct or indirect negotiations between the US and Iran. 6. British media: An Iranian source said that Pakistan has submitted the US proposal to Iran, but the location for any talks between the US and Iran aimed at ending the war has not yet been determined. 7. Iran states that a ceasefire and negotiations are not feasible at this stage. 8. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi: Tehran has no intention of holding talks with the US. Exchanging information through mediators does not mean negotiating with the US. 9. Iranian Parliament Speaker: Intelligence indicates that Iran's "enemies" are planning to occupy an Iranian island with the support of a regional country; if the other side takes any action, Iran will attack the regional country's key facilities. 10. Iranian military source: If the enemy attempts to launch ground operations on Iranian islands/territory, or increases Iran's defense costs through maritime activities, Iran will open other fronts. 11. Iran sets five conditions for a ceasefire: a complete cessation of aggression and assassinations; ensuring that war will not be imposed on Iran again; war reparations; an end to the war on all fronts and by all resistance groups; and recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. ②United States 1. US House Speaker Johnson: The war with Iran is nearing its end and its objectives have been achieved; the US military will not conduct ground operations. 2. The White House warned Iran that it would face a more severe blow if it did not admit defeat, stating that it had never confirmed the 15-point plan reported by the media. 3. White House Press Secretary Levitt: Reiterated that the timeframe for Iranian action is 4 to 6 weeks. Iran is willing to engage in dialogue, and Trump is prepared to participate. 4. US media: The White House plans to hold talks with Iran this weekend, with Vice President Vance possibly attending. 5. US officials stated that the US and Israel have temporarily removed Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi from their purge lists for four to five days. ③ Israel 1. The Israeli military claims to have struck two Iranian sea-based cruise missile production facilities. 2. The Israeli military attacked a combat equipment production facility in Tehran. 3. The Israeli government approved the mobilization of 400,000 reservists during the war. 4. The Israeli military attacked an Iranian naval facility used for submarine development. 5. Mossad Director Barnea believes that regime change in Iran will take a full year. 6. Israeli Defense Minister: So far in this round of conflict, 15,000 bombs have been dropped on Iran, four times the amount dropped during the 12-day conflict last year. 7. US media: Israeli officials say Israel fears the war is nearing its end and is seizing the opportunity to strike Iran with full force. ④ Other 1. A drone attack targeted an oil depot at Kuwait International Airport. 2. Russia: The US call for talks with Iran may be aimed at preparing for a redeployment of armed forces. 3. Military sources say airstrikes targeted Iraqi Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces positions in the Al-Khem region on the Syrian-Iraqi border. 4. The Iraqi Prime Minister has instructed the Foreign Ministry to summon the US chargé d'affaires in Iraq regarding the attacks on its "military units." 5. Pakistani officials: There is currently no confirmed date or location for possible US-Iran talks, and Iran has not yet agreed to hold talks. 6. Lebanese army: Missile debris that crashed in several parts of the country on Tuesday has been identified as Iranian-made ballistic missiles, although the missile was likely not targeted at Lebanon. 7. Ukrainian President Zelensky: Ukraine hopes to reach a long-term drone cooperation agreement with most Gulf states. 8. Six Middle Eastern countries issued a joint statement calling on Iraq to take necessary measures to stop attacks launched from Iraq into neighboring countries. 9. US Media: Arab mediators say that while negotiations with Iran are difficult, Iran's rhetoric in private discussions about ending the war is not as hard-lined as it is in public. ⑤ Strait of Hormuz 1. White House Press Secretary Levitt: (When asked when the first oil tanker would be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz) There is no definite news yet. 2. According to CNN, citing sources: Iran is strengthening defenses on Hormuz Island to guard against a potential US ground attack. 3. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi: The enemy sought help from other countries to try to open the Strait of Hormuz, but failed. Now only enemy ships cannot pass through.