CITI SEES FED RATE CUTS BEGINNING SEPTEMBER VS JUNE PREVIOUSLY

An explosion has reportedly occurred in Kermanshah, western Iran.

1. Monday: ① Data: US March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; US March Global Supply Chain Stress Index. ② Holiday: Germany, Australia, France, Spain, New Zealand, Italy, UK, China's Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, Beijing Stock Exchange, domestic futures exchanges, Hong Kong Stock Exchange closed for the day, Northbound and Southbound trading closed, Taiwan Stock Exchange closed for the day. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: France, Germany, Eurozone, UK March Services PMI final readings; Eurozone April Sentix Investor Confidence Index; US March New York Fed 1-year Inflation Expectations; China March Foreign Exchange Reserves. ② Events: US President Trump holds a joint press conference with the military in the Oval Office; a new round of price adjustments for domestic refined oil products will begin. ③ Holiday: Hong Kong Stock Exchange closed for the day, Northbound and Southbound trading closed. 3. Wednesday: ① Data: US API and EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending April 3; Japan's February trade balance; New Zealand's Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision for the week ending April 8; UK's March Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index (MoM); France's February trade balance; Switzerland's March seasonally adjusted unemployment rate; Eurozone's February PPI (MoM); Eurozone's February retail sales (MoM). ② Events: EIA releases its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report; Chicago Fed President Goolsby, a 2027 FOMC voting member, speaks on monetary policy; Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its interest rate decision; Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman holds a monetary policy press conference. 4. Thursday: ① Data: US 10-year Treasury auction (ending April 8); German February seasonally adjusted industrial production (month-on-month); German February seasonally adjusted trade balance; US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4; US February core PCE price index (year-on-year); US February personal spending (month-on-month); US Q4 final annualized GDP growth rate; US Q4 final real personal consumption expenditure growth rate; US Q4 final annualized core PCE price index (month-on-month); US February core PCE price index (month-on-month); US February wholesale sales (month-on-month); US EIA natural gas storage for the week ending April 3. ② Events: Federal Reserve releases monetary policy meeting minutes; Swiss National Bank President Schlegel delivers a speech. 5. Friday: ① Data: China's March CPI year-on-year rate; Germany's final March CPI month-on-month rate; Switzerland's March consumer confidence index; Canada's March employment change; US March unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate, seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate, unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate; US April one-year inflation rate expectations (preliminary); US April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (preliminary); US February factory orders month-on-month rate; China's March M2 money supply year-on-year rate (pending). 6. Saturday: ① Data: US total number of oil rigs for the week ending April 10.