US Dollar:
1. Fed March meeting minutes: More officials mentioned the possibility of interest rate hikes.
2. Fed mouthpiece says ceasefire makes the Fed's decision more difficult.
Euro:
1. German industrial output unexpectedly fell in February; energy price shocks are expected to further suppress output.
2. Market pricing shows reduced bets on ECB rate hikes, with expected increases of less than 50 basis points this year.
3. European Commission Executive Vice President Dombrovskis warned that a ceasefire cannot mask stagflation concerns, and economic growth forecasts may be revised downwards.
4. British Pound:
5. UK March three-month RICS house price index was -23, a new low since January 2024.
6. Market pricing shows reduced expectations for Bank of England rate hikes, with current expectations of a cumulative 30 basis points this year.
Other:
1. Trump threatens to impose 50% tariffs on countries supplying weapons to Iran.
2. Bank of Thailand Governor: Will avoid interest rate hikes as much as possible to support the economy.
3. Foreign investors sold off Indian stocks for two consecutive days on the 23rd, bringing the cumulative withdrawal to $17.8 billion since the end of February.
4. The World Bank lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean.
5. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor believes stronger economic growth this year is possible if the conflict can be resolved quickly.
6. The Institute of International Finance (IIF) estimates that emerging market equities saw outflows of $56 billion in March, the largest in over 20 years.
7. The World Bank projects India's economic growth for fiscal year 2026/27 at 6.6%, down from 6.3% previously; it lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast for Turkey to 2.8%, down from 3.7%.
8. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that increased fiscal spending may push up market interest rates, but Japan's short- and medium-term real interest rates are clearly negative, and financial conditions remain accommodative.
