Crude Oil:
1. Crude oil exports from Russia's largest Black Sea port remain restricted: Loading has not yet resumed following attacks on two major berths.
2. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: The European Commission will publish its energy price measures proposal on April 22. A proposal to reduce energy taxes will be submitted in May.
3. UBS: Raised its Brent crude oil price forecast, expecting $100 per barrel by the end of June, $95 per barrel by the end of September, and $90 per barrel by the end of December. It also raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the end of March 2027 to $85 per barrel.
4. Morgan Stanley: Maintained its spot Brent crude oil price forecast, expecting $110 per barrel in Q2 2026, $100 per barrel in Q3, and stabilizing at around $80 per barrel in 2027. Exports via the Strait of Hormuz are expected to remain weak in April, recover to about 70% of the previous decline between May and July, and not return to normal until October. 5. International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol: The war with Iran has damaged more than 80 oil and gas facilities, including production facilities, terminals, and refineries.
6. US Energy Secretary Wright stated: Venezuelan oil production exceeds 1.2 million barrels per day, a 25% increase in three months. US energy prices are likely to continue rising until substantial navigation is restored in the Strait of Hormuz, a process expected to take "several weeks."
7. Kazakhstan's oil exports from January to March totaled 15.3 million tons, with oil production projected to reach 76 million tons by 2026.
Natural Gas:
1. German CDU: The German government plans to improve natural gas reserve exploration.
2. Indian government official: Local liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production is approximately 45,000 tons per day.
3. Azerbaijani Ministry of Energy: Azerbaijan exported 3 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe in the first quarter.
4. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: We are studying the coordination of natural gas storage activities among member states.
Precious Metals and Mining:
1. Floods in Angola destroyed railways, disrupting exports of key minerals from the Lobito Corridor.
2. Indonesia's state-owned mining company, Mineral Resources Indonesia, set its 2026 gold production target at 317,000 tons, a 6% year-on-year increase; its aluminum production target at 275,000 tons, a 2% year-on-year decrease.
3. JPMorgan Chase: Due to a 2.4 million-ton supply reduction in the Middle East, the primary aluminum deficit is projected to reach 1.9 million tons in 2026. The average aluminum price is expected to be $3,800 per ton in the second quarter of 2026 and $3,500 per ton in the second half of 2026.
Strait of Hormuz Situation:
1. The US military has begun intercepting ships entering and leaving the Strait of Hormuz.
2. US media: Senior US officials stated that the blockade against Iran has officially taken effect, with over 15 warships deployed.
3. Maersk: Starting May 13, freight rates on FMC routes will be increased, and starting April 13, freight rates on non-FMC routes will be increased, applicable to routes to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Lebanon, and Israel.
