China’s economy gained momentum in Q1, with GDP rising 5% year-on-year, up from
4.5% in Q4 and above the 4.8% consensus, driven mainly by strong export growth
offsetting weak domestic demand, according to the National Statistics Bureau.
However, the Iran war-driven energy shock clouds the growth outlook and may
weaken global demand. Beijing has set a 2026 growth target of 4.5%–5%, the
lowest since the early 1990s, reflecting softer domestic demand and ongoing US
trade tensions. The statistics bureau warned the external environment is
becoming more complex and volatile, citing an “acute” imbalance between strong
supply and weak demand.
