US Dollar:
1. Fed Chair Daly: Rates may remain unchanged; a rate hike would be necessary if inflation accelerates; a rate cut is possible if the conflict ends quickly.
2. US short-term interest rate futures rose, with the market expecting the probability of a Fed rate cut in 2026 to rise to about 60%.
3. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: US economic growth will reach 6% during Trump's presidency.
4. Fed Governor Waller is cautious about rate cuts, warning of the risk of prolonged conflict.
Euro:
1. The money market lowered the probability of an ECB rate hike in April from 15% earlier in the day to about 8%.
2. Barclays: Expects the ECB to raise rates by 25 basis points each in June and September 2026, down from previous forecasts of April and June.
3. ECB – ① Governing Council member Demarco: June is a more natural time to make a judgment. An April or June rate decision is not yet a done deal;
② President Lagarde: Risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside. Inflation may be higher than the benchmark, especially if inflation expectations and wage growth respond better than expected;
③ Kohl: Don't act prematurely in the face of uncertainty.
④ Governing Council member Kazax: Will not oppose betting on two rate hikes this year. It is still uncertain whether the next rate adjustment will be a rate hike.
Pound Sterling:
1. Investors expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in 2026.
2. Bank of England – ① Governor Bailey: Will not rush into a rate hike decision;
② Chief Economist Peale: Inflation expectations have not decoupled;
③ Deputy Governor Briden: The Iran war increases the likelihood of overlapping market pressures. If the pressures materialize, there may be a period of volatility.
Yen Yen:
1. Bank of Japan survey: Japanese households expect an average inflation rate of 11.4% one year from now, with a median of 10.0%; Japanese households expect an average inflation rate of 10.3% five years from now, with a median of 5.0%.
Korean Won:
1. US Treasury Secretary meets with South Korean Economy Minister, agreeing that excessive volatility in the won is "undesirable."
Other:
1. According to a Reuters poll: All 31 economists surveyed said that the Indonesian central bank will keep its 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 4.75% on April 22. 17 of the 27 economists expected the Indonesian central bank to keep the 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 4.75% at the end of the fourth quarter (compared to a 50 basis point cut expected in a March survey).
