David Solomon said US recession risk could shift rapidly depending on the
administration’s response to the Iran war, noting it may be “only one tweet
away," reflecting market sensitivity to posts by President Donald Trump on Truth
Social. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates recession odds at about 20%, versus a
15% base case. Solomon expects oil to stay at $80–$100 per barrel for three to
six months, but warned severe escalation could push prices to $170. Crude has
surged about 30% since the conflict, briefly nearing $120 in March before easing
to around $95, with sustained high energy costs likely to weigh on economic data
later this year.
