Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Nomura Holdings Inc. have dropped
forecasts for China monetary easing this year, with Nomura pushing expected rate
and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts to 2027 from prior calls for a
50-basis-point RRR cut in Q2 and a 10-basis-point rate cut in Q4. Goldman also
removed its forecast for a 50-basis-point RRR cut in 2026, while Bank of America
Corp. withdrew expectations for two rate cuts totaling 20 basis points in 2026.
The shift follows a Politburo meeting that omitted references to rate and RRR
tools, alongside rising inflation pressures linked to higher oil prices and
ample interbank liquidity. Economists cited reduced urgency for stimulus, with
Barclays saying rate cuts are unlikely unless growth falls below 4.5%.
