Germany's preliminary harmonized CPI annual rate for April was 2.9%, below the expected 3.1% and the previous reading of 2.80%.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury warned financial institutions of sanctions risks tied to Chinese refiners processing Iranian crude, signaling potential secondary sanctions. The Office of Foreign Assets Control said smaller private refiners, particularly in Shandong, face blacklisting exposure. The move increases pressure on Iran and could heighten tensions with China ahead of a planned summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The US also sanctioned 35 entities linked to Iran’s shadow banking network and warned against payments tied to transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Danske Bank - April decision: Hold rates unchanged (in line with consensus and pricing) - Policy path: First cut expected in September (earlier than market pricing) - Forward guidance: Unlikely to provide firm signals yet - Other considerations: · Possible final meeting for Powell as Chair; may clarify post-chair plans (Board term to Jan 2028) · Likely to reaffirm slower T-bill purchase pace after April - Market bias: Risks tilted toward lower UST yields and weaker USD if easing remains on the table ING - April decision: Hold rates unchanged - Macro backdrop: Growth continues but faces headwinds; energy costs pushing inflation higher - Market pricing: Minimal expectations for April; ~10bp easing priced by year-end - Policy path: Two cuts in 2026 (September, December) - Fed projections: One 25bp cut (March projections) - Focus: Powell press conference (potentially final as Chair), including legacy and future role ANZ - April decision: Hold at 3.50–3.75% - Policy stance: Patient; waiting for: · Clear disinflation progress · Tariff effects to fade - Risks: Middle East conflict, elevated energy prices - Policy path: Cuts resume in Q3 (likely September) - Inflation view: Gradual disinflation supported by moderating wages, margin compression, anchored expectations J.P. Morgan - April decision: Hold rates - Policy path (base case): · No cuts in 2026 · 25bp hike in Q3 2027 - Conditionality: Cuts possible if: · Labor market weakens materially · Energy-driven economic drag intensifies Morgan Stanley - April decision: (Implicit) No urgency to move; focus on underlying inflation dynamics - Policy path: Rate cuts in 2026 despite oil-driven inflation - Core view: · Headline inflation distorted by energy · Long-term inflation expectations remain anchored - Framework: Fed likely to look through energy shocks if core disinflation trend persists - Assumption: Limited pass-through from oil to core inflation