International
1. Morgan Stanley: Expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in 2026, compared to previous forecasts of rate cuts in September and December.
2. Morgan Stanley: Prepare for a US stock market correction; the peak of panic presents a good buying opportunity.
3. SignatureFD: The threshold for a Fed rate hike remains high.
4. Clearwater Analytics: The Fed remains on hold, continuing its wait-and-see approach; political pressure to cut rates has failed.
5. Barclays: The UAE's exit from OPEC will lead to faster growth in its oil supply.
6. BNP Paribas: The Middle East conflict has a wide-ranging impact, enough to damage the global economy.
7. BNP Paribas: While US economic growth is relatively strong, the dollar will still weaken.
8. ANZ: The UAE's exit from OPEC will have a limited short-term impact on oil prices.
Domestic
1. CICC: The next Fed rate cut may be delayed until the fourth quarter.
2. CICC: Theoretically, the Fed should cut rates twice; the actual number depends on oil prices and Trump's actions.
3. Huatai Securities: The threshold for a Fed rate cut in 2026 has increased.
4. CITIC Securities: The market guidance effect of the Fed Chairman's speeches has decreased compared to the past.
5. CICC: Continues to be optimistic about core investment areas such as optical communication, customized chip services, memory, and wafer foundry.
6. CITIC Securities: The tanker and bulk carrier rotation cycle is upward, and new ship prices are marginally recovering.
