US Dollar:
1. US labor productivity growth slowed in the first quarter.
2. A New York Fed survey showed stable long-term inflation expectations.
3. The US dollar has essentially given back all gains since the Iran-Iraq War.
4. US corporate layoffs increased by 38% month-over-month in April, but are down 50% year-to-date.
5. US initial jobless claims rose slightly last week, with the job market remaining in a state of low hiring and low layoffs.
6. Fed – Hamak: The baseline scenario is that interest rates will remain unchanged for an extended period. Given the current uncertainty, I need to remain open to the next policy move. Collins: Supports keeping interest rates unchanged, but hopes for adjustments to the statement's wording. Daly: The wording of the statement is less important than action, and there should be no overreaction to the energy shock. Fed – Williams: Demand for US Treasuries remains strong.
Other:
1. The Central Bank of Serbia kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.75%.
2. Japan's latest round of intervention may reach as high as 5.01 trillion yen.
3. ECB Executive Board member Schnabel: If the energy shock expands, the ECB will need to raise interest rates.
4. ECB Governing Council member Villeroy: The next step should be based on data, not dates.
5. A Reuters poll shows the Canadian dollar/US dollar is expected to depreciate by 0.3% within three months, reaching 1.3667 (April forecast: 1.37).
6. Indonesian central bank governor: Large-scale intervention will be implemented to stabilize the currency. The Indonesian central bank will intervene around the clock, not only in the domestic market but also in the offshore market.
