US Dollar:
1. Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report: Risks related to private credit redemptions are “manageable.”
2. “Fed mouthpiece”: Non-farm payroll data suggests the Fed’s focus will shift from employment to inflation.
3. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: We believe in a strong dollar. Because of Warsh, we will see rate cuts this year. There are no signs of runaway inflation, and the Fed does not need to raise rates.
4. Fed’s Goolsby: Positive developments on inflation will lead to rate cuts, but this has not yet occurred. We must pay attention to the inflation rate when price pressures intensify.
5. Bank of America Global Research: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points each in July and September 2027, previously forecasting cuts in September and October 2026.
6. Goldman Sachs: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points each in December 2026 and March 2027, previously forecasting cuts in September and December of this year.
7. CITIC Securities: The baseline scenario for the Fed in the second half of the year is one 25bp rate cut.
Euro:
1. ECB Governing Council member Nagel: The ECB remains highly vigilant about the threat of inflation. The ECB will take necessary measures to control rising energy prices.
2. ECB President Lagarde: The ECB is caught between acting too early and too late, and needs "more data" to understand the impact of this conflict.
3. ECB Governing Council member Kochel: (When asked if the ECB might raise interest rates at its next meeting) Unless the situation improves significantly, a rate hike in the near future is inevitable.
4. ECB Vice President Guindos: I think we should wait and see before deciding on the next interest rate policy move.
Pound Sterling:
1. The UK's ruling Labour Party suffered a crushing defeat in local elections, while the Reform Party is gaining momentum.
Yen:
1. Japan may not have intervened in the foreign exchange market this Thursday.
2. The Bank of Japan appointed monetary policy expert Kazuhiro Masaki to head international affairs.
3. Following the Japanese authorities' intervention, short positions in the yen decreased significantly. 4. Bank of Japan: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will visit Switzerland from May 9th to 13th to attend a meeting of the Bank for International Settlements.
Other:
1. Central Bank of Iceland: Has decided to resume regular foreign exchange purchases in the interbank market.
2. Central banks of Malaysia and Indonesia signed an agreement to strengthen bilateral cooperation.
3. Traders: The Reserve Bank of India may be selling dollars to curb the rupee's decline.
