Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 China GDP growth forecast to 4.8% from 4.7%,
citing resilient exports driven by AI and green-investment demand.
The bank’s economists say China’s supply-chain strength is helping it gain
additional global export market share. They also note the economy is relatively
insulated from oil-price shocks due to its diversified energy mix and strategic
reserves.
Robust exports have reduced the need for further stimulus, prompting Morgan
Stanley to drop its call for second-half fiscal support and additional monetary
easing. The PBOC is instead likely to rely on liquidity injections and targeted
credit tools rather than interest-rate cuts.
