US Dollar
1. The Fed's meeting minutes were hawkish: most officials supported raising rates if inflation remained high, and many favored removing the dovish stance.
2. A Fed mouthpiece commented on the April meeting minutes: discussions on rate cuts are almost over, and the Fed is beginning to seriously discuss the possibility of rate hikes.
Euro
1. Moulin, nominated by French President Macron, has been approved by the French parliament to become the new governor of the Bank of France.
2. ECB Governing Council member Rehn: In adverse scenarios, it may be necessary to raise rates to maintain credibility. We are moving towards an adverse scenario.
3. Sources: The ECB may be uncertain about its policy in July. With the inflation outlook developing into an adverse scenario, the probability of the ECB raising rates in June is very high.
Pound Sterling
1. Market pricing shows that traders no longer fully expect two Bank of England rate hikes in 2026.
2. Bank of England Deputy Governor Brident: The risks to financial stability are significant and high.
3. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann: Concerned that the high inflation that may emerge at the end of the year could become entrenched in the 2027 wage agreement. 4. Bank of England Governor Bailey: The tightening of financial markets has given us some time to assess whether to raise interest rates. In fact, we have achieved tightening without lowering key interest rates.
Japanese Yen
1. Bank of Japan Board Member Junko Koeda: Interest rate hikes should continue at an appropriate pace.
2. According to Nippon Television News: Japan is considering a supplementary budget of approximately 3 trillion yen.
3. Bank of Japan: Most financial institutions surveyed indicated that the Bank of Japan should not make any adjustments to its current bond-buying tapering program. Regarding plans for the next fiscal year and beyond, some believe the Bank of Japan should suspend tapering, while others believe it should continue.
Other
1. Central Bank of Iceland raises benchmark interest rate to 7.75%.
2. Central Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly raises interest rates by 50 basis points to 5.25%, compared to market expectations of a 25 basis point hike.
3. Reserve Bank of India: Will inject liquidity through long-term USD/IRR buy/sell swap auctions.
4. Central Bank of Nigeria: Raises daily trading volume target in the foreign exchange market from $550 million to $1 billion.
5. Banking sources: The Reserve Bank of India's daily $1 billion foreign exchange defense measures are unlikely to reverse the rupee's decline.
6. South Korea's Ministry of Finance statement: South Korea will launch 24-hour trading of the US dollar against the Korean won for the first time on July 6.
7. According to a Reuters poll: 10 out of 13 economists expect the Bank of Israel to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%; 3 expect it to remain unchanged.
8. Sources familiar with the matter: The Reserve Bank of India is considering all possible options to stabilize the rupee exchange rate, including raising interest rates, increasing currency swaps, and raising US dollars from overseas investors.
