Capital Economics says RBNZ hike may come sooner than market expected; RBNZ held
rates in a split vote with chair casting tie-breaker (first since MPC set up in
2019); RBNZ now sees a 25 bps hike in Q3 and a cycle peak of 3.25% (prior 3%);
output gap still materially negative, so RBNZ unlikely to lift rates above
neutral.
