US officials told Axios the Trump administration is preparing for a possible
collapse of the Cuban government as early as this summer and has wargamed
military contingency plans to prevent post-collapse chaos. The president has not
authorized a military invasion and prefers a peaceful transition toward
'liberalization'; instead the administration will continue a 'slow-motion'
tightening of economic sanctions aimed at strangling the Havana regime.
Officials say the approach also buys time while the administration focuses on
Iran negotiations, and they assert the sanctions toolbox and enforcement
capacity remains substantial with additional measures forthcoming, though some
levers are less available than before.
