France May harmonized CPI YoY 2.8%, up from 2.5% in April and slightly below the
2.9% consensus; rise driven by energy costs from the Middle East conflict,
supporting expectations for an ECB rate move in June. The print opens a week of
major eurozone inflation releases; markets expect price pressures to intensify
in Spain and Italy, to ease slightly in Germany, but remain well above the ECB’s
2% target across member states. Eurozone aggregate inflation due next week is
forecast to climb above April’s >3% level. Since Trump launched military action
against Iran three months ago, ECB officials from hawk Isabel Schnabel to dovish
chief economist Philip Lane has signaled a possible need to tighten; April’s
meeting held policy steady but minutes said some second‑round effects were
“inevitable,” with debate focused on their scope, intensity, timing and
persistence.
