Tin has risen about 40% in six months, from roughly 300,000 yuan/tonne in
November to about 420,000 yuan/tonne, trading near historic highs. China remains
the world’s largest refined-tin producer and consumer, but falling domestic ore
grades mean roughly two-thirds of smelter feedstock is imported. Since last
year, supply has tightened after export restrictions and geological disruptions
in major producers Myanmar, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Market participants expect elevated tin prices to persist over the next one to
two years. Demand is shifting from traditional consumer electronics and tinplate
to AI servers, optical modules and advanced semiconductor packaging, lifting
overall consumption and prompting mid- and downstream firms to accelerate
technology upgrades and move upmarket.
