The Australian Department of Agriculture's first survey estimates the 2026/27
winter wheat crop at 26.7 mln tons, a 26% decline YoY and below the five- and
ten-year averages. Plantings are estimated at 10.9 mln ha, down 12% and the
smallest since 2019/20. The department cites severe drought, weak global wheat
prices narrowing returns versus other crops, and higher production input
costs—notably fuel and fertilizer—linked to Middle East war-related disruption
in the Strait of Hormuz.
