Tianfeng Securities says China’s coal market is looser than in 2021–22, making a
large coal-driven rise in the coal-to-oil price ratio unlikely. Geopolitical
risk around the US–Iran conflict is uncertain; even if tensions ease, oil supply
shortfalls are unlikely to be restored quickly and the oil-price baseline may
not return to pre-conflict levels in the short term. A fall in the coal-to-oil
ratio would widen downstream spreads for coal-to-chemicals; together with likely
slower capacity growth during the 15th Five-Year Plan, coal-to-chemicals
profitability may enter an upcycle.
