[Futures Hot Topics Tracking] NOAA raises its forecast for a strong El Niño, expecting US soybean yields to increase, while Brazil faces a 9% decline. Is a "weather-driven" agricultural market on the way?

London Metal Exchange (LME) inventories: copper down 2,575 t, aluminum down 250 t, zinc down 625 t, nickel unchanged, tin down 40 t, lead down 1,150 t.

Domestic News: 1. The People's Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchase operations. 2. Refined oil prices have been lowered; filling up a tank will cost approximately 21 yuan less. 3. The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a notice to securities firms to strengthen the management of trading business units. 4. The Ministry of Commerce stated that the US's abuse of export controls has impacted the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain. 5. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce answered reporters' questions regarding the OECD industry subsidy report. 6. Futu: Starting June 12, it will suspend the purchase (opening) of positions in China for existing accounts. 7. The Ministry of Commerce announced its decision on the inheritance of tax rates for companies involved in anti-dumping measures on imported polyoxymethylene copolymer originating from South Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia. International News: 1. The US added the President of Cuba to its sanctions list. 2. Federal Reserve's Daly stated that providing forward guidance is not appropriate at this time. 3. US initial jobless claims rose to 225,000, a new high since February. 4. Bessant: The US may grant country-specific waivers for Russian oil. 5. Sources: The Bank of Japan is considering a June rate hike, with further increases possible later. 6. US companies laid off 97,000 employees in May, the highest level for the same period since 2020. 7. World Gold Council: Global gold ETFs saw net outflows in May, with technology ETFs performing strongly. 8. Anthropic called for a global halt to cutting-edge AI research, claiming that AI self-improvement could pose significant risks. 9. Zelensky publicly wrote to Putin, proposing a meeting. Putin stated his willingness to negotiate with Ukraine based on the Anchorage meeting. 10. Middle East Situation—① Arab media: Discussions on an agreement to unfreeze Iranian funds have entered the final stage. ② Trump informed mediators that he would refuse to release funds to Iran until an agreement is signed. ③ Trump: We are in the final stages of negotiations to end the war with Iran. If Iran kills US troops, it will be a sufficient reason to restart the conflict. ④ Israeli troops begin withdrawing from Debin, southern Lebanon. ⑤ Hezbollah: Refuses to accept the so-called outcome of direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, and only cares about a comprehensive ceasefire.