Citigroup raised CATL (03750.HK) profit forecasts for FY2026–FY2028 by 9%, 9%
and 7% to 103.0 bln, 126.0 bln and 149.0 bln yuan after the company's Q1
results. Despite a lower unit gross‑margin assumption, Citi lifted battery
volume forecasts, now expecting FY2026 battery production and shipments of 1.2
TWh and 1.0 TWh, up 61% and 54% YoY; it highlighted ESS demand as a key driver.
Citi said short‑term lithium carbonate prices above 200,000 yuan/tonne would not
destroy demand and could indicate demand resilience. Citi projects FY2026 Q2 net
profit of 24.3 bln yuan on battery shipments of 260 GWh (YoY +77%, QoQ +29%). It
raised the H‑share target price from HK$621 to HK$888, maintained Buy and sector
pick status; the new PT equals 34.3x 2026E P/E and 8.7x P/B.
