Republican-led states have completed congressional redistricting. To regain a
House majority in the 2026 midterms, Democrats would need to outperform their
2024 national popular vote by about 5 percentage points. An Axios analysis
estimates the new maps confer roughly a 2 percentage-point advantage to
Republicans in the national popular vote. In the 10 states that redrew maps,
Democrats currently hold 80 seats and Republicans 101; Democrats would need to
flip three seats to win House control, which would determine whether Trump’s
final two years face congressional checks.
