Huatai Securities says short-term A-share market has entered a window of thin
AI‑chain catalysts coinciding with macro risk re-pricing. Last Friday’s
stronger-than-expected US NFP triggered global liquidity tightening: US Treasury
yields and the dollar rose and the Nasdaq-100 and other risk assets pulled back;
weaker-than-expected guidance from overseas AI leaders and short-term crowding
positions have prompted a style rebalancing, shifting the primary risk from
industry momentum to macro pricing. If the Nasdaq-100 falls >2% alongside rising
US yields, A-shares face a higher probability of monthly downside;
financials/value should outperform while growth is under pressure.
Recommendation: modestly take profits in AI-chain names and await lower
volatility to re-enter; favor banks for higher expected returns amid macro
re-pricing and selectively rebalance into minor metals and packaging & printing
stocks that look EPS-accretive after Q1 results.
