Major banks and economists expect US May unadjusted headline CPI y/y to cluster
at 4.2%. A subset of forecasters project 4.1% (ABN AMRO, Berenberg, DBS Group,
Scotiabank, UniCredit); several firms forecast 4.3% (JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley,
Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Barclays, Danske, BNP Paribas). For unadjusted
core CPI y/y, forecasts split between 2.8% and 2.9% — Morgan Stanley, BofA,
Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Nomura at 2.8%, while UBS, TD Securities, Wells
Fargo, ABN AMRO, BNP Paribas, BMO, Barclays, HSBC, Jefferies, ING, Sumitomo
Mitsui, Scotiabank, Societe Generale, Standard Chartered, Stifel and UniCredit
are at 2.9%.
