1. Danske Bank: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike. Its latest forecast may include a 68 basis point hike scenario based on technical assumptions, providing a basis for two rate hikes by the Governing Council this year.
2. Nordea Bank: Expects a preemptive 25 basis point rate hike. It will not commit to interest rate policy after June, and will pay close attention to forecast revisions and the impact of the Middle East war.
3. ING Bank: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike. It maintains a hawkish stance, emphasizing that inflation risks have risen, without overemphasizing growth risks, and more clearly opening the door to further rate hikes.
4. ANZ Bank: Expects 25 basis point rate hikes in June and September. This is unlikely to be the start of a new round of large-scale tightening, but will focus more on the issue of a larger-than-expected energy shock.
5. Credit Agricole: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike. Its forecast may point to increased downside risks to the economy and the unlikely occurrence of a widespread second round of inflation. A dovish rate hike would have limited impact on the euro.
6. Nordea: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike, with Lagarde expected to send a relatively hawkish signal. The bank is unlikely to explicitly state that it will raise rates again as early as July, but the latest forecasts support this expectation.
7. MUFG: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike, which will open the door to further action and maintain sufficient flexibility. A total of 50 basis point rate hikes are expected this year, with another hike possible in July.
8. TD Securities: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike, with no major changes to its statement. It will continue to acknowledge the two-way risks to inflation and growth, maintaining its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.
9. OCBC: Expects a one-off, "insurance-style" 25 basis point rate hike. The latest forecasts will show rising inflation expectations and slower economic growth; without new catalysts, the euro's gains will be limited.
10. DBS Bank: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike, with guidance maintaining a cautious and hawkish tone. Rate hikes are still possible in the second half of the year, but will be assessed at each meeting, closely monitoring the possibility of easing tensions in the Middle East.
11. UBS: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike, unlikely to signal anything regarding the July meeting. New forecasts will reflect some economic deterioration, but not as severe as the "adverse scenario" predicted in March.
12. Societe Generale: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike from a neutral stance, with another hike in September. The latest forecast may revise the 2027 core inflation expectation upward to approximately 2.5%, with significant downside risks to GDP remaining.
13. Berenberg: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike, but this could be a mistake. Monetary policy cannot prevent the surge in energy prices caused by the Iranian supply shock, and further weakening domestic demand through rate hikes is not advisable.
14. Natixis: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike, with a moderately dovish tone. A second rate hike is expected between July and September, with probabilities of 35% and 55% respectively, depending on the duration of the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
15. Brown Brothers Harriman: A 25 basis point rate hike is expected. Weak growth prospects in the Eurozone and the possibility of downward revisions to growth forecasts will cause the euro/dollar to fall to 1.1400, but the downside is limited.
