Ben May and Bridget Payne at Oxford Economics said the U.S.-Iran agreement
reduces the risk that sustained declines in oil inventories would trigger a
global energy-price shock and recession, though risks remain. They said the deal
does not automatically mean oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will recover
faster than previously assumed — they had expected transit to resume by end-July
— and their near‑term oil‑price forecasts still look high. They added that
reopening the strait is likely to ease inflation but provide only limited
support to growth, reinforcing their view that the Fed and Bank of England will
not further hike and that other central banks that have finished tightening are
unlikely to resume hikes.
