A busy Asia-Pacific central bank opens as the BANK OF JAPAN and the RESERVE
BANK OF AUSTRALIA hold policy meetings; markets will watch how authorities view
Middle East risk after the recent US–Iran ceasefire. Markets largely price a BOJ
rate hike as a done deal; focus is on the yen’s behavior at intervention-risk
levels. TD Securities says a hike alone is unlikely to support the yen — the BOJ
would need more hawkish guidance, faster tightening and a higher terminal rate
to stem yen weakness. The RBA is expected to pause after three consecutive
hikes. Nomura says the RBA is unlikely to declare victory on inflation or
provide meaningful forward guidance; any signs of weakening growth could
pressure the AUD.
