{"title":"Institutions see Bank of Japan June 25bp hike to 1.00%; QT pause
possible, 25bp largely priced","content":"Major banks and research houses widely
expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates by 25bp at the upcoming meeting, taking
the policy rate to about 1.00%. Goldman Sachs, Mitsubishi UFJ, State Street and
Mizuho forecast a June hike and anticipate further increases roughly every six
months or another move later this year; Oxford Economics and others warn a
delayed hike would disappoint markets and likely further weaken the yen. A
Reuters survey shows 94% of economists expect a June lift to 1.00% and project
1.25% by Q4. Market takeaway: a 25bp move is largely priced and unlikely alone
to reverse yen weakness. Former BOJ chief economist Kameda expects two hikes
this year; Deputy Governor Uchida is expected to reaffirm the bank’s commitment
to continued tightening while avoiding specific timing signals. On quantitative
tightening, Mizuho expects a mid‑term review and a possible pause or slowing of
monthly bond‑purchase reductions from the Apr–Jun period, potentially holding
current taper plans through Jan–Mar next year. Deutsche warns that concurrently
hiking and stopping QT would require explicit explanation and could be read as a
political compromise. Bank of America models a later path, forecasting a 25bp
hike in October followed by increases in Mar and Jul 2027, taking the terminal
rate to 1.75% by end-2027."}
