Morgan Stanley sharply cut near-term oil forecasts in a June 15 report, citing a
tentative US‑Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that should restore
regional output and add supply. Analysts including Martijn Rats now see Brent
crude averaging $90/bbl in Q3 (prior $100) and $80/bbl in Q4 (down $15). They
say expected timing for Middle East output restoration has moved up one to two
weeks, with gradual recovery from mid-July, roughly 50% by September, 80% by
December and the remainder by early 2027; many issues and key risks remain.
