Energy:
1. US strategic petroleum reserves fall to a 43-year low.
2. Fitch Ratings: If the agreement fully opens the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil market is expected to return to a supply surplus within about a month.
3. Citi lowered its oil price forecast to its previous bearish scenario, with updated quarterly oil price forecasts of $75 and $70 per barrel for the third and fourth quarters of 2026, respectively.
4. Indian government: Raises windfall tax on diesel exports to 14 rupees per liter; increases export tax on aviation turbine fuel to 12.5 rupees per liter for the next two weeks. Gasoline export tax remains unchanged for the next two weeks.
5. Goldman Sachs: Lowers its Q4 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast from $90 to $80; lowers its 2027 Brent crude oil average price forecast to $75, down from $80 previously. The average price of WTI crude oil is projected to be $75/barrel in Q4 2026 and $70/barrel in 2027. Persian Gulf oil exports are expected to recover to pre-war levels by the end of July, down from the previous forecast of the end of August.
6. Morgan Stanley: Lowered its Q3 Brent crude oil price forecast from $100 to $90, and Q4 from $95 to $80. Production is expected to gradually recover from mid-July, with 50% expected by September, 80% by December, and the remainder recovering gradually in early 2027. The oil market is expected to return to oversupply in 2027, with observable inventories increasing by 2.4 million barrels per day.
Precious Metals and Mining:
1. World Gold Council survey: More central banks indicate plans to increase gold reserves.
2. India's gold imports in May totaled $3.42 billion.
3. Marubeni Corporation: Aluminum inventories at major Japanese ports stood at 238,900 tons at the end of May, compared to 249,500 tons at the end of April.
4. Citigroup: Raised its 3-month gold price forecast to $4,500/oz and its silver price forecast to $70/oz.
5. According to Kyodo News: G7 leaders discussed the US-Iran agreement, and the Japanese Prime Minister proposed a mining initiative.
Agriculture:
1. India stated that a tender for the import of 1.7 million tons of urea is underway.
2. According to Interfax: Kazakhstan partially lifted its ban on livestock imports from Russia.
Iran Situation:
1. Iran: Will charge fees for shipping services in the Strait of Hormuz.
2. Iran stated that access to and from the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
3. Trump stated that ships loaded with oil are safely leaving the Strait of Hormuz.
4. The first energy transport ship to pass through the Strait of Hormuz after the US-Iran agreement.
5. Macron: The Franco-British escort operation in the Strait of Hormuz is ready to begin at any time.
6. US Vice President Vance: The Strait of Hormuz will remain open indefinitely. It is expected that passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be free for an extended period.
7. The US military announced that the US blockade of Iranian ports will remain in effect until an agreement is reached with Iran on June 19.
