Most institutions expect the Fed to hold at the upcoming meeting and to remove
dovish forward guidance; views diverge on timing and direction of the next move.
MOODY'S: hold; cuts unlikely short-term, baseline no cut this year; could hike
if inflation expectations rise. Nomura: hold; near-term cuts unlikely, possibly
unchanged through 2026. JP Morgan: hold; rates to remain unchanged for the rest
of the year, policy shifting from easing toward neutral. Wells Fargo: hold;
would only hike if clear labor-market overheating or worse inflation. BNY
MELLON: hold; statement likely to signal two-way risks and drop 2026 cut
expectations; no moves this year. Goldman Sachs: hold; expects removal of easing
guidance and two 25bp cuts in Jun and Dec 2027. UBS: hold; expects abandonment
of dovish wording and 25bp cuts in Mar and Jun 2027. CITIGROUP: hold; expects
three 25bp cuts in Sep, Oct and Dec. Commerzbank: hold; may begin cuts mid-next
year, cumulative -75bp by end-2027. Capital Economics: hold but sees high
probability of two “insurance” hikes in Dec and early next year. BNP Paribas:
hold; little chance of pre-midterm hike, earliest hike in Dec, pace milder than
2022. Deutsche Bank: hold; baseline unchanged long-term but upside risk rising.
PGIM: hold; expects three hikes this year, then three cuts in 2027 and one in
2028, terminal rate ~3.375%. Barclays, BofA, ANZ and Mitsubishi UFJ: expect hold
and likely deletion of dovish phrasing; BofA may adjust employment wording and
ANZ expects reaffirmed 2% inflation commitment. MFS: hold; may signal a neutral
stance and consider dropping the dot-plot and reducing press-conference time.
