The IEA says Gulf oil output could rebound to about 8.0 mln b/d by 2027, but
full normalization of flows through the Strait of Hormuz will take months as sea
mines are cleared and supply chains recover. The agency called this week’s
US‑Iran temporary agreement the most significant negotiating breakthrough since
the war, but said key details remain unresolved. The IEA now sees global oil
demand falling 1.1 mln b/d this year (previous forecast -0.42 mln b/d) on high
prices and severe supply disruption, and expects demand to rebound by 2.0 mln
b/d next year as trade flows normalize, oil prices ease and the economic outlook
improves.