Markets broadly expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged, but uncertainty centers
on the economic path and how new chair Wash will run the central bank. The labor
market remains resilient, consumer spending is strong, and inflation remains
above target, though high price readings may ease later this year. Fed watchers
say Wash is likely to reshape communication and decisionmaking—reducing forward
guidance on rate expectations, possibly abolishing the dot plot (he may not
submit his own forecasts), and cutting press‑conference frequency. Oxford
Economics’ chief US economist Nancy Houten expects no June hike but says Fed
wording will be tightened to remove dovish signals; some participants at the
last meeting preferred more open language rather than implying an imminent cut.
Markets have priced a chance of a hike later this year, while the baseline
remains a December cut; Houten notes risk that easing could slip beyond
December.
