US May core retail sales $623.44 bln, prior $617.86 bln.

UBS, Goldman, Barclays, PIMCO and other institutions expect the Fed’s SEP/dot plot to show higher inflation and a more cautious policy path, pushing rate cuts later or reducing the number of cuts implied earlier this year. UBS: expects inflation forecasts to be revised up; most FOMC members see no rate cuts before 2028, though the median could still show a single 2028 cut while overall policy remains restrictive. Goldman: says Waller may not submit a personal dot plot; expects the median to show rates unchanged through 2026 with one cut in 2027 and another in 2028, and anticipates 2026 GDP and unemployment slightly lower but inflation materially higher. Barclays: expects a hawkish tilt — rates held all of 2026, only one cut in 2027, and no easing in 2028. Jefferies: flags Waller’s rejection of forward guidance as likely, implying a shorter FOMC statement and reduced SEP detail. Capital Economics: expects Waller will decline to provide a personal policy path but will still be pressed on his views at the press conference. JP Morgan: expects Waller to submit a personal forecast; not doing so would signal clear dissent from his committee leadership. TD Securities and BofA: anticipate Waller will not submit a personal dot plot; BofA expects growth forecasts to be trimmed to ~2.1% while inflation is revised up and unemployment is unchanged or slightly lower. Rabobank: sees risk skewed toward stickier inflation, fewer cuts or even upside to rates rather than a quick improvement. Nordea: expects removal of the intra-year cut scenario priced in March and even some calls for hikes. BNY Mellon: expects a modestly hawkish adjustment, likely dropping the previous expectation of a 2026 cut. PIMCO: expects a significant hawkish shift in the dot plot; several committee members may show projections for higher 2026 rates even if the median remains unchanged.

WTI crude oil dipped to $76/bbl, down 0.92% intraday.