Ceasefire reports between the US and Iran reduced the geopolitical risk premium,
knocking international crude lower and deepening China’s negative crude-price
adjustment rate. At 24:00 on June 18, national retail price caps were cut by 515
yuan/tonne for gasoline and 495 yuan/tonne for diesel; per-litre cuts: 92#
gasoline -0.40 yuan, 95# -0.43 yuan, 0# diesel -0.42 yuan. With global supply
rising and oversupply concerns weighing on prices, oil may drift lower near
term; a new negative crude adjustment cycle would correspond to a first-day cut
of 500 yuan/tonne, next pricing window 24:00 on July 3.
