Goldman Sachs economists say Southeast Asian food prices face upside risk over
the next several months. The oil-price shock from the Middle East conflict has
already fed into fuel-sensitive CPI components, and rising fertilizer costs will
raise agricultural input prices. An El Nifio event, possible by end-2026, could
lift global temperatures and trigger further grain-supply shocks, though its
impact is imprecisely estimated. Goldman Sachs estimates a 10% rise in local oil
prices would lift Southeast Asia food CPI by about 0.3 percentage point after 12
months.
