Yen weakness, despite policy efforts to halt the fall, could lift aggregate
profits at Japanese automakers by about ¥934bn (≈$5.8bn) if the currency stays
near current levels. Toyota’s May guidance assumes $1=¥150 versus the current
~¥161; Toyota estimates each ¥1 depreciation boosts its operating profit by
¥50bn, implying a substantial benefit from continued yen weakness. Other OEM
assumptions are more conservative: Honda $1=¥145, Nissan $1=¥150, Subaru and
Mazda $1=¥155. In yuan terms of input costs, raw material and energy prices in
yen have fallen more than 30% from late‑April peaks after the US‑Iran peace
agreement. Analyst Tatsuo Yoshida says the recent developments could be
materially positive for firms that already factored Middle East risks into
forecasts and that lower gasoline prices may help consumer confidence and support vehicle demand.
