China International Capital Co says gold’s selloff since March does not signal
the end of the bull market. International gold fell below $4,000/oz, off more
than 25% from the March peak of $5,321/oz. CICC cites two primary drivers:
US–Iran conflict-driven oil and inflation upside, which stoked tightening
expectations, and a June FOMC appearance by a Fed official that was read as
hawkish — the dot plot revised up inflation expectations and roughly half of the
18 voters signaled support for at least one rate hike this year. Futures
markets have priced one Fed hike in 2026 and one in 2027; a stronger dollar has
weighed on gold. CICC cautions against linear extrapolation: US inflation may
have peaked and could trend down in H2, and the recent hawkish rhetoric does not
necessarily mark a permanent Fed shift away from eventual easing. Conclusion:
the correction is not the end of the gold bull market; a turnaround may be near.
Recommendation: maintain positions and buy on dips.
