SEB chief strategist Jussi Hiljanen said in a note that as markets priced higher
odds of a durable US–Iran peace the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.40% and
is likely to trade around that level over the coming months. “We expect the US
10-year yield to lack a clear trend in the coming months, trading mostly in a
4.30%–4.50% range,” he said. SEB said a durable Middle East settlement alone is
unlikely to push UST yields into a sustained downtrend; that would require
supportive macro data and explicit Fed policy communication.
