Fitch’s BMI commodities research unit keeps its 2026 gold average forecast at
$4,600/oz and expects the Federal Reserve to take no rate action this year. BMI
says the Fed’s earlier hawkish tone raised rate expectations and creates
material downside risk for gold, but if inflationary pressure linked to the
Middle East conflict fades as the recent US–Iran agreement eases tensions, the
most likely outcome is rates remaining unchanged for an extended period.
Near-term gold moves will be driven by Fed policy signals; precious metals are
vulnerable to repricing and a stronger dollar.
