Minmetals Futures said weekend reports of supply-side restarts are pressuring
lithium carbonate and prices are likely to open lower. Supply: H2 incremental
lithium carbonate output will be driven mainly by spodumene, with overall
release pacing slightly faster than H1. Demand: downstream orders remain full;
July–August is a seasonal EV consumption trough but downstream production
continues to rise MoM, and peak demand is expected in Sept–Oct. Overall,
Minmetals judges the annual supply–demand balance will remain tight — even if a
large Jiangxi lithium mine resumes production. A near-term price decline may
prompt downstream buyers to bring forward restocking, which would limit
downside.
