Castle Securities warns investors are underestimating Kevin Warsh's resolve to
return inflation to the Fed's 2% target and the drag that stance could impose on
risk assets. Noshad Shah, head of fixed-income sales, says recent oil-led
disinflation is insufficient to remove reasons for further rate hikes because
underlying inflation pressures remain elevated, and the AI-driven equity rally
looks increasingly fragile. Warsh's signal that high inflation constrains policy
lowers the probability of Fed intervention, weakening the "Fed put".
