CIBC Capital Markets economist Andrew Grantham says stronger-than-expected April
data point to Canada Q2 GDP of about 2.5% annualized. Industry GDP rose 0.5% MoM
in April and Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate shows May GDP +0.1% MoM.
Grantham said a 2.5% Q2 pace would exceed the Bank of Canada’s 1.5% projection
but would not, on an output-gap basis, fully offset Q1’s 0.1% annualized
contraction. CIBC retains its call for the Bank of Canada to keep the policy
rate unchanged this year.
