China International Capital Co says gold has likely priced in excessive Fed
rate-hike expectations and could see some giveback this year. The macro team
argue persistent labor and consumption pressures, plus rising financing demand
from the US AI-driven economy, make a materially hawkish Fed unlikely; policy
may be “hawkish in name but dovish in practice.” Using a model that infers rate
expectations from gold, the note estimates the current ~$4,000/oz gold price
implies pricing for roughly 3–4 further hikes, above what interest-rate futures
currently show. If falling oil prices feed through to US near-term inflation,
the market’s pricing of hikes could be revised lower, creating short-term
buying/covering opportunities in the futures market.
