China International Capital Co (CICC) says after global inventory builds and
deep price falls in 2023–25, 2026 could mark a cyclical inflection for
agricultural commodities. Price bottoms across categories appear set, creating
an easier-to-rise-than-fall dynamic; CICC judges H2 2026 likely lacks a basis
for a fresh one-way decline as costs form a floor, supply contraction becomes
entrenched, weather may add episodic shocks, and demand opens up. Sector
performance ranking: oilseeds and vegetable oils, cotton, natural rubber, sugar
> soybeans, corn. Q2 valuations have corrected to reasonable levels; CICC
recommends medium-to-long-term buy-the-dip positioning to capture phased
recoveries and trend upside.
