Under a new US-EU trade agreement the EU has pledged to buy $750bn of US energy
products over the next three years, with LNG to account for the bulk. Higher
Asian gas prices have drawn US exporters eastward, and European purchases of US
LNG fell in June to a two-year low. EU gas storage sits near a 15-year low for
the season after last winter’s drawdown, Middle East tensions and supply
disruptions, leaving winter supply pressure elevated. A 2027 ban on Russian LNG
imports would, by some estimates, leave the US supplying as much as 80% of EU
LNG imports. At the same time EU restrictions on North Sea and Arctic oil and
gas development limit domestic production upside. Measures meant to reduce
reliance on Russian energy could therefore increase Europe’s dependence on US
supplies.
