SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index on Tuesday, and amid a confluence of opposing forces, analysts and investors expect high volatility in the share price and advise caution as hedging activity around the stock heats up. JJ Keenahan, senior vice president of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, said investors should be prepared for a $20 swing in the stock over the next week and a half. SpaceX had only about 4% of its shares available for sale during its initial public offering, although a higher-than-average proportion was allocated to retail investors. Under Nasdaq 100 inclusion rules, this will translate into a relatively modest index weighting: JPMorgan estimates a 1.3% weighting, placing it around 21st in the index, behind Nvidia, Walmart, Intel, and Tesla. Analysts say this means the early impact of passive buying on the share price may be limited. “There’s no doubt this will still be very high volatility,” said Mike Hoff, chief strategist at OpenInterest.PRO. “But the smaller the weight of any component stock in the index, the fewer shares anyone trying to track the index needs to buy.” Jeff Jacobson, head of derivatives strategy at 22V Research, made a similar comment in a report to clients on June 21: “The buying required for index inclusion is likely far less than people initially guessed.”
